Addressing the Silent Crisis: The impact of slow-onset environmental change on human mobility and conflict

art by Samuel Kambari (Rwanda | Uganda)

Alice Baillat and Sarah Zingg (IOM); Alec Crawford (IISD); Elaine Hsiao (Kent State University School of Peace and Conflict and IUCN CEESP); Kanta Kumari Rigaud (World Bank); Richard A. Matthew (University of California Irvine and IUCN CEESP); Lauren Herzer Risi (Woodrow Wilson Center); Galeo Saintz (IUCN CEESP)

Working across the scales of decision-making and relevant fields— including humanitarian, peacebuilding, development, nature conservation, and resource management sectors—is crucial to address slow-onset environmental change and mismanagement of natural resources as underlying causes of migration, displacement, and conflict, and mitigate related risks for the security of migrants and communities.

Context

Slow-onset environmental change and associated future risks have severe impacts on the availability and quality of natural resources, which undermine people’s livelihoods, security, well-being, and resilience.[i] While degradation and depletion of natural resources do not automatically lead to conflict, they can exacerbate tensions in conflict-affected and fragile contexts, especially when coupled with policies that fail to address the underlying causes of tension and undermine local mediation and dispute resolution mechanisms that can diffuse frictions.[ii]

These dynamics can lead to diverse human mobility outcomes: internal and transboundary migration, on a temporary or longer-term basis, by individuals, households, and communities, moving voluntary or forcibly displaced, as well as “trapped populations” that are either unable to move or resist displacement.[iii] Concurrently, the mobility of different groups, for which migration patterns in many areas are changing due to climate change, may compound environmental degradation and increase social tensions in transit and destination settings by putting an additional burden on the natural resource base and increasing real or perceived competition over resources.[iv]

The interplay between slow-onset environmental change, conflict, and human mobility is having catastrophic environmental and human impacts in many places (e.g., Darfur, Somali region of Ethiopia, Sahel, Syria, Central America’s Northern Triangle); these impacts are likely to worsen as climate change impacts accelerate. In some cases, the challenges are well known and documented; in others, they are happening outside of public attention. In the context of rising humanitarian needs, these dynamics are undermining existing peacebuilding and sustainable development efforts. Urgent action is needed.

What’s been done

Migration and displacement mainly take place within national borders. State and local institutions thus play a key role in rights and practices around water, land, and natural resource access and use. Inclusive[v] and local forms of resource management—whether customary or statutory—and locally-owned, community-driven conflict resolution mechanisms, have proven effective on the ground. In areas in Yemen with large numbers of displaced persons and host communities, the engagement of local water-user associations and women in the mitigation of water conflicts have helped to resolve competition and inter-communal conflicts over the limited water supply.[vi] In Nepal, the management of local forests by community associations has helped to enhance the resilience of the forests to climate change and the ability of communities to cope with impacts of armed conflict, especially in community forest groups led by, or inclusive of, women.[vii]

Left unaddressed, underlying causes of slow-onset environmental degradation, including poverty, demographic change, and resource mismanagement, will have a multiplier impact on crises, with further effects on migration and displacement. Several existing tools can help us understand how environmental change affects human mobility, and inform decision-making at various levels:  

-       IOM’s Displacement Tracking Matrix captures the role of environmental factors as drivers of human mobility or immobility, through the inclusion of environmental considerations in data collection on displacement and migration.[viii]

-       The World Bank’s Groundswell approach introduces slow-onset climate impacts into a model of future population distribution and development pathways to build robust projections of internal climate migration.[ix]

-       IOM’s Transhumance Tracking Tool in West Africa identifies shifts in the timing, direction, and size of herd movements, thus supporting the deployment of appropriate stabilization and management interventions, enabling a local approach to conflict mitigation and pre-empting herd-related conflicts.[x]

Looking ahead

Efforts are needed to identify the stressors brought on by slow-onset environmental change, and to address their impacts on communities, particularly those groups that may be more vulnerable (e.g., women, Indigenous Peoples, resource-dependent groups).

Locally-driven solutions and mechanisms, through inclusive and just processes, and the strengthening of local institutions,[xi] are essential to support people whose livelihoods depend on local resources—especially those living in already fragile or conflict-affected areas—to adapt to slow-onset environmental change, mitigate the risks of conflict over resources, and prevent displacement. 

There is also a need to work across the scales of decision-making—from local to national, regional, and international levels—to ensure the development of inclusive and just climate adaptation and conservation policies that are conflict- and gender-sensitive, rights-based, and that do not lead to further conflict or displacement.[xii] There is an opportunity to pursue more integrative solutions that combine attention to underlying causes of migration along with immediate and urgent needs of stakeholders, building off experiences and lessons from ongoing projects.[xiii]

Furthermore, peacebuilding initiatives need to take into consideration the interplay between the challenges associated with slow-onset environmental change and other social, economic, and political factors.[xiv] Including an environmental lens in efforts to build peace and strengthen institutions will enable societies to simultaneously increase their resilience to environmental change and head off future conflicts related to natural resources.

Lastly, it is imperative to monitor local environmental, socio-economic, political, and mobility indicators through inclusive community processes, and detect differentiated risks to the well-being of affected communities, in order to enhance resilience, mitigate conflicts, and prevent forced displacement. Anticipatory approaches that use robust analytics and data modeling will be increasingly important to reduce or to avert future crises.

Footnotes

[i] World Bank (2020) Poverty and Shared Prosperity 2020: Reversals of Fortune, The World Bank Group: Washington D.C

[ii] Schuyler N. and Herzer Risi L. (2016) Navigating complexity: Climate, Migration, and Conflict in a Changing World. Woodrow Wilson Centre: Washington D.C; Forthcoming, IOM MSR paper on the climate change-conflict-mobility nexus (2021)

[iii] Ibid.

[iv] Ibid.

[v] Farvar et al. (2018) “Whose 'Inclusive Conservation'?", Policy Brief no. 5 (ICCA Consortium)

[vi] IOM and FAO have partnered on two ongoing UN Peacebuilding Fund (PBF) funded interventions aiming at engaging water associations to devise solutions which enhance access to the resource for water users on various parts of the site. The project is implemented with a gender focus, to strengthen the role of women in conflict resolution through natural resource management at community level in rural areas (http://www.fao.org/3/cb4637en/cb4637en.pdf).

[vii] Karna, B.K, Shivakoti, G.P. and Webb, E.L. (2010) ‘Resilience of community forestry under conditions of armed conflict in Nepal’, Environmental Conservation 37(2): 201-209.

[viii] IOM (2020) Human mobility in the context of environmental and climate change. Assessing current and recommended practices for analysis within DTM, International Organization for Migration: Geneva.

[ix] Rigaud, K.K., de Sherbinin, A., Jones, B., Bergmann, J., Clement, V., Kayly Ober, Schewe, J., Adamo, S., McCusker, B., Heuser, S. and Midgley, A. (2018) Groundswell: Preparing for Internal Climate Migration. Washington, DC: The World Bank

[x] The Transhumance Tracking Tool (TTT) has been developed by the IOM’s Displacement Tracking Matrix (DTM)  (https://publications.iom.int/system/files/pdf/ch10-transhumance-tracking-tool.pdf). It combines a flow registry to measure the volume of transhumant movements in key locations (such as water points and cattle markets) with a localized early warning system to detect transhumance events (such as conflicts over water resources and grazing lands), in order to share alerts with local communities, relevant ministries and civil society organizations

[xi] Hsiao, E. and Aijazi, O. (2014) ‘Build Robust Local Organizations. Conflict-sensitive Adaptation: Use Human Rights to Build Social and Environmental Resilience’ Brief 7, Indigenous Peoples of Africa Co-ordinating Committee and IUCN CEESP. (https://www.academia.edu/28899975/Build_Robust_Local_Organizations_Conflict_sensitive_Adaptation_Use_Human_Rights_to_Build_Social_and_Environmental_Resilience)

[xii] IOM (forthcoming 2021) ‘Exploring the climate change-conflict-mobility nexus’, Migration Research Series, International Organization for Migration: Geneva; Risi, L., S. Goodman, R. Pulwarty, A. King and J. Quispe. (2020) An Evidence-Based Collaborative Framework for Improving Predictive Capabilities. The Wilson Center: Washington, DC.

[xiii] See: Rigaud, K.K.; Heuser, S.; Abu-Ata N.; and Arora, A. (2021) Operational Experiences and Lessons Learned at the Climate-Migration-Development Nexus – A World Bank Portfolio Review with a Focus on Sub-Saharan Africa. World Bank: Washington, DC.

[xiv] Ibid.